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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the largest improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However the current race is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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